North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

‎Operational delivery systems: Musudan missile has been flight-tested ← Previous revision Revision as of 04:08, 23 June 2016 Line 190: Line 190:   There is evidence that North Korea has been able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for use on a ballistic missile.<ref name=NYT>{{cite news|last=SHANKER|first=THOM|title=Pentagon Says Nuclear Missile Is in Grasp for North Korea|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?hp|accessdate=11 April 2013|newspaper=The New York Times|date=April 11, 2013}}</ref> Re-entry technology to protect the warheads en route to their targets is lacking.<ref name="Reentry">{{cite web |url=http://www.koreanconfidential.com/northkoreathreat.html |title=Could North Korean Missiles Hit the U.S.? |accessdate=25 March 2013}}</ref> An April 2012 display of missiles purporting to be ICBMs were declared fakes by Western analysts, and indicated North Korea was a long way from having a credible ICBM.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/analysts-say-north-koreas-new-missiles-are-fakes-7681655.html |title=Analysts say North Korea's new missiles are fakes |author=Eric Talmadge |date=April 26, 2012 |newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=April 29, 2012 |location=London}}</ref> In December 2012, North Korea placed a (possibly non-functional) satellite into orbit for the first time.<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/03/asia/north-korean-space-program/index.html North Korean space scientist to U.S. people: 'Trust us'], CNN: "international experts generally agreed that KMS 3-2 was in space, but most were skeptical that it was operational"</ref> Various North Korean rocket tests continued into the 2010s, for example in [[2013 North Korean missile tests|2013]], in [[2014 North Korean missile tests|2014]], and in an allegedly successful satellite launch in 2016.<ref name="cnn 2016 sanctions" /> North Korea performed no tests of medium-range missiles sufficiently powerful to reach Japan in 2015, but South Korea's [[Yonhap]] news agency believes that at least one missile fired during North Korea's March 2016 missile tests is likely a medium-range Rodong-missile.<ref>{{cite news|author1=JACK KIM|author2=JU-MIN PARK|title=Defiant North Korea fires ballistic missile into sea, Japan protests|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSKCN0WJ30V|accessdate=18 March 2016|work=[[Reuters]]|date=17 March 2016}}</ref> North Korea appeared to launch a missile test from a submarine on 23 April 2016; while the missile only traveled 30&nbsp;km, one U.S. analyst noted that "North Korea's sub launch capability has gone from a joke to something very serious".<ref>{{cite news|author1=Don Melvin|author2=Jim Sciutto|title=North Korea launches missile from submarine|url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/23/asia/north-korea-launches-missile-from-submarine/|accessdate=23 April 2016|work=CNN|date=23 April 2016}}</ref>   There is evidence that North Korea has been able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for use on a ballistic missile.<ref name=NYT>{{cite news|last=SHANKER|first=THOM|title=Pentagon Says Nuclear Missile Is in Grasp for North Korea|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?hp|accessdate=11 April 2013|newspaper=The New York Times|date=April 11, 2013}}</ref> Re-entry technology to protect the warheads en route to their targets is lacking.<ref name="Reentry">{{cite web |url=http://www.koreanconfidential.com/northkoreathreat.html |title=Could North Korean Missiles Hit the U.S.? |accessdate=25 March 2013}}</ref> An April 2012 display of missiles purporting to be ICBMs were declared fakes by Western analysts, and indicated North Korea was a long way from having a credible ICBM.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/analysts-say-north-koreas-new-missiles-are-fakes-7681655.html |title=Analysts say North Korea's new missiles are fakes |author=Eric Talmadge |date=April 26, 2012 |newspaper=The Independent |accessdate=April 29, 2012 |location=London}}</ref> In December 2012, North Korea placed a (possibly non-functional) satellite into orbit for the first time.<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/03/asia/north-korean-space-program/index.html North Korean space scientist to U.S. people: 'Trust us'], CNN: "international experts generally agreed that KMS 3-2 was in space, but most were skeptical that it was operational"</ref> Various North Korean rocket tests continued into the 2010s, for example in [[2013 North Korean missile tests|2013]], in [[2014 North Korean missile tests|2014]], and in an allegedly successful satellite launch in 2016.<ref name="cnn 2016 sanctions" /> North Korea performed no tests of medium-range missiles sufficiently powerful to reach Japan in 2015, but South Korea's [[Yonhap]] news agency believes that at least one missile fired during North Korea's March 2016 missile tests is likely a medium-range Rodong-missile.<ref>{{cite news|author1=JACK KIM|author2=JU-MIN PARK|title=Defiant North Korea fires ballistic missile into sea, Japan protests|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-idUSKCN0WJ30V|accessdate=18 March 2016|work=[[Reuters]]|date=17 March 2016}}</ref> North Korea appeared to launch a missile test from a submarine on 23 April 2016; while the missile only traveled 30&nbsp;km, one U.S. analyst noted that "North Korea's sub launch capability has gone from a joke to something very serious".<ref>{{cite news|author1=Don Melvin|author2=Jim Sciutto|title=North Korea launches missile from submarine|url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/23/asia/north-korea-launches-missile-from-submarine/|accessdate=23 April 2016|work=CNN|date=23 April 2016}}</ref>     − ==== Successfully tested ==== + ==== Operational ====   * '''[[SS-N-2|KN-1]]'''&nbsp;– a short-range anti-ship cruise missile. Its range is estimated to be around 160 kilometers, and is most probably an improved version of the Soviet Termit missile (NATO codename "''Styx''").   * '''[[SS-N-2|KN-1]]'''&nbsp;– a short-range anti-ship cruise missile. Its range is estimated to be around 160 kilometers, and is most probably an improved version of the Soviet Termit missile (NATO codename "''Styx''").   * '''[[OTR-21|KN-2 Toksa]]'''&nbsp;– a short-range, solid-fueled, highly accurate mobile missile, modified copy of the Soviet OTR-21. Unknown number in service, apparently deployed either in the late 1990s or early 2000s (decade).   * '''[[OTR-21|KN-2 Toksa]]'''&nbsp;– a short-range, solid-fueled, highly accurate mobile missile, modified copy of the Soviet OTR-21. Unknown number in service, apparently deployed either in the late 1990s or early 2000s (decade). Line 196: Line 196:   * '''[[Hwasong-6]]'''&nbsp;– later Scud modification. Similar to the Hwasong-5, yet with an increased range (550–700&nbsp;km) and a smaller warhead (600–750&nbsp;kg). Apparently this is the most widely deployed North Korean missile, with at least 400 missiles in use.   * '''[[Hwasong-6]]'''&nbsp;– later Scud modification. Similar to the Hwasong-5, yet with an increased range (550–700&nbsp;km) and a smaller warhead (600–750&nbsp;kg). Apparently this is the most widely deployed North Korean missile, with at least 400 missiles in use.   * '''[[Nodong-1]]'''&nbsp;– larger and more advanced Scud modification. Liquid-fueled, road-mobile missile with a 650&nbsp;kg warhead. First production variants had inertial guidance, later variants featured [[GPS]] guidance, which improves CEP accuracy to 190–250&nbsp;m.<ref>{{cite web|author=John Pike |url=http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-1.htm |title=Rodong-1 |publisher=Globalsecurity.org |accessdate=March 1, 2012}}</ref> Range is estimated to be between 1,300 and 1,600&nbsp;km.   * '''[[Nodong-1]]'''&nbsp;– larger and more advanced Scud modification. Liquid-fueled, road-mobile missile with a 650&nbsp;kg warhead. First production variants had inertial guidance, later variants featured [[GPS]] guidance, which improves CEP accuracy to 190–250&nbsp;m.<ref>{{cite web|author=John Pike |url=http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/dprk/nd-1.htm |title=Rodong-1 |publisher=Globalsecurity.org |accessdate=March 1, 2012}}</ref> Range is estimated to be between 1,300 and 1,600&nbsp;km. − * '''[[Taepodong-1]]'''&nbsp;– three-stage technology demonstrator testbed. First stage was adapted from a Rodong-1. Second stage was adapted from a Hwasong-6. A satellite-delivery launch was attempted in 1998. The satellite failed, but the first two stages apparently functioned adequately. <!-- launch platform, no evidence it was ever developed into a ballistic missile platform … // therefore it is North Korea's longest-ranged operational missile with its 2,500&nbsp;km maximum range. -->According to some analysts, the Taepodong-1, if developed into an ICBM platform, could have a range of nearly 6,000&nbsp;km with a third stage and a payload of less than 100&nbsp;kg.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/101748.pdf |title=CRS report for Congress |format=PDF |accessdate=March 1, 2012}}</ref><ref>[http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau/pekdosan-1.htm Pekdosan-1 ("Taepodong-1")], skyrocket.de</ref> The U.S. [[Defense Intelligence Agency]] estimates that the Taepodong-1 was a test-bed, not intended or usable as a weapon.<ref>[https://fas.org/irp/congress/2003_hr/021103qfr-dia.pdf E:PICKUP89797A<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> The US [[National Air and Space Intelligence Center]] made a similar assessment.<ref name=NASIC-1031-0985-09>{{cite report |url=https://fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/NASIC2009.pdf |title=Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat |work=National Air and Space Intelligence Center |publisher=Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Agency |id=NASIC-1031-0985-09 |date=April 2009 |accessdate=20 February 2013}}</ref> + * '''[[BM25 Musudan|Musudan]]'''&nbsp;– believed to be a modified copy of the Soviet [[R-27 Zyb]] [[SLBM]]. Originally believed to have been tested as the first or second stage of [[Unha]], but debris analysis showed that the Unha used older technology than it is believed the Musudan uses.<ref name=rand-2012 /> Also known under the names Nodong-B, Taepodong-X, Hwasong-10 (HS-10) and BM25, predicted to have a range of 2,500–4,000&nbsp;km assuming R-27 technology is used.<ref name=afp-20130408>{{cite news |url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130408/facts-about-north-koreas-musudan-missile |title=Facts about North Korea's Musudan missile |work=AFP |publisher=GlobalPost |date=8 April 2013 |accessdate=10 April 2013 |quote=IHS Jane's puts the estimated range at anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres … potential payload size has been put at 1.0-1.25 tonnes.}}</ref> A DoD report puts BM25 strength at fewer than 50 launchers.<ref name=NKMPR15/>   + * '''[[Paektusan (rocket)|Taepodong-1]]'''&nbsp;– three-stage technology demonstrator. First stage was adapted from a Rodong-1. Second stage was adapted from a Hwasong-6. A satellite launch was attempted in 1998. The satellite failed to reach orbit, but the first two stages apparently functioned adequately. The U.S. [[Defense Intelligence Agency]] concluded that the Taepodong-1 was a test-bed for a series of long-range ballistic missiles and SLVs.<ref>[https://fas.org/irp/congress/2003_hr/021103qfr-dia.pdf E:PICKUP89797A<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> The US [[National Air and Space Intelligence Center]] made a similar assessment.<ref name=NASIC-1031-0985-09>{{cite report |url=https://fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/NASIC2009.pdf |title=Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat |work=National Air and Space Intelligence Center |publisher=Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Agency |id=NASIC-1031-0985-09 |date=April 2009 |accessdate=20 February 2013}}</ref>       ==== Untested / failed ====   ==== Untested / failed ==== − * '''[[Taepodong-2]]'''&nbsp;– Three-stage technology demonstrator.<ref>http://38north.org/2015/03/jschilling031215/</ref> First test occurred in 2006, when the missile failed 40 seconds after launch. Estimates of the range vary widely&nbsp;– from 4,500 to 10,000 kilometers (most estimates put the range at about 6,700&nbsp;km). As of 2013, the Taepodong-2 has not yet been deployed.<ref name=NKMPR13>http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/North_Korea_Military_Power_Report_2013-2014.pdf</ref> + * '''[[Taepodong-2]]'''&nbsp;– Three-stage technology demonstrator.<ref>http://38north.org/2015/03/jschilling031215/</ref> First test occurred in 2006, when the missile failed 40 seconds after launch. Estimates of the range vary widely&nbsp;– from 4,500 to 10,000 kilometers (most estimates put the range at about 6,700&nbsp;km). − * '''[[KN-08]]'''&nbsp;– Road-mobile [[ICBM]]. Maximum range >3,400 miles. The US Defense Department estimates at least 6 KN-08 launchers are in deployment.<ref name=NKMPR13/> + * '''[[KN-08]]'''&nbsp;– Road-mobile [[ICBM]]. Also called the Hwasong-13 (HS-13). Maximum range >3,400 miles. The US Defense Department estimates at least 6 KN-08 launchers are in deployment.<ref name=NKMPR15>http://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/Military_and_Security_Developments_Involving_the_Democratic_Peoples_Republic_of_Korea_2015.PDF</ref> A modified version, the KN-14, was unveiled at a parade marking the 70th anniversary of the [[Workers Party of Korea]].<ref>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KN-08#New_KN-08_based_missile:_KN-14</ref> − * '''[[BM25 Musudan|Musudan]]'''&nbsp;– believed to be a modified copy of the Soviet [[R-27 Zyb]] [[SLBM]], untested as of 2013. Originally believed to have been tested as the first or second stage of [[Unha]], but debris analysis showed that the Unha used older technology than it is believed the Musudan uses.<ref name=rand-2012 /> Also known under the names Nodong-B, Taepodong-X and BM25, predicted to have a range of 2,500–4,000&nbsp;km assuming R-27 technology is used.<ref name=afp-20130408>{{cite news |url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130408/facts-about-north-koreas-musudan-missile |title=Facts about North Korea's Musudan missile |work=AFP |publisher=GlobalPost |date=8 April 2013 |accessdate=10 April 2013 |quote=IHS Jane's puts the estimated range at anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometres … potential payload size has been put at 1.0-1.25 tonnes.}}</ref> A DoD report puts BM25 strength at fewer than 50 launchers.<ref name=NKMPR13/>         == Exports related to ballistic missile technology ==   == Exports related to ballistic missile technology ==